When Boundaries Are Born: Disintegration and Displacement in the Former Soviet Union

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Panelists:

Svein Beksrud
Regional Representative for the Caucasus, Norwegian Refugee Council

Hurst Hannum
Professor of International Law, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University; Author, Autonomy, Sovereignty and Self-Determination

William Hayden
Consultant, Global Internally Displaced Persons Survey; MALD Candidate, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy

Kathleen Hunt
Chief Consultant on the CIS, Forced Migration Projects, Open Society Institute; Former Moscow Correspondent, National Public Radio

Josh Rubenstein
Northeast Regional Director, Amnesty International USA

Moderator:
Gabriel Safar
EPIIC Colloquium

Interlocutor:
Gregory Katz
European Editor, Dallas Morning News

On December 26, 1991 the Soviet Congress acknowledged the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Within the next year, 15 new sovereign states were born. Some had been absent from the map of the world for over 70 years, others had never existed before. Twelve of these nations formed what is known as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). With the creation of these new boundaries, the former Soviet Union stepped into a chaotic and dynamic existence.

The new political realities have led to a total of nine million uprooted people as borders were redrawn creating numerous "foreigners" in their homelands. These movements have sparked a multitude of troubles. Mass exodus of Russian speakers from central Asia have created a brain drain and a strain on local economies, while in other areas large numbers of immigrants have stressed the infrastructures of young, inexperienced governments. The root causes of these migrations are extremely diverse. Indeed the situation in the CIS is a microcosm of worldwide migration concerns. Virtually every issue this symposium will discuss is prevalent in the CIS: labor migration, people trafficking, citizenship and identity, ethnic conflict and resolution, security of relief workers, and internally displaced peoples. These issues, and many more, constitute the complex conundrum that is the CIS. Understanding the past and present situations is paramount to dealing with this area's problems.

Many of the seeds for the migration were laid over 60 years ago. Between 1936 and 1952, three million Soviet citizens, in what was then the Western borders of the Soviet Union, were rounded up and shipped thousands of miles East to settlements in Central Asia and Siberia. Whole ethnic regions were forcibly transferred, including the Volga Germans, the Kalmyks, the Ingush, and the Crimean Tartars. Half a century later, their children and grandchildren want to go home. But "home" is a place many have never seen before, and it is a place that usually already belongs to someone else. Still, thousands of Volga Germans have moved back to Germany, and thousands of Crimean Tartars are trying to move back to the Ukraine. Everywhere they go, they force the host country to reevaluate its conception of citizenship. These migrants -- the "legacy of the Soviet Union" -- will not go away.

By far the most contentious region in the CIS is the Caucuses, the region between the Caspian and the Black Seas occupied by Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation. Ethnic conflicts here have generated and regenerated over one million refugees and internally displaced persons, creating a nightmare for relief agencies. The longest conflict has involved Armenia and Azerbaijan. February 20, 1998 was the tenth anniversary of the independence movement in Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is an area within Azerbaijan that is overwhelmingly populated by Armenians. In 1994, the 170,000 Armenians in this region won a resounding victory over the Azeris, capturing de facto independence. Since then, the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been negotiating along with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for a mutually acceptable solution to the situation. Those negotiations were drastically altered earlier this month when the Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan was forced to resign. Mr. Ter-Petrosyan was prepared to make concessions to Azerbaijan in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. His political opponents who forced the resignation, notably Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan (himself from Nagorno Karabakh), are opposed to making any concessions to the Azeris. The elections for the next Armenian President will be held in 17 days; they will help determine the future for Nagorno-Karabakh, and whether or not peace will come to this area.

Georgia has also had more than its share of conflicts. Two regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, have both vied for independence, costing thousands of lives and generating hundreds of thousands of refugees. Georgia has since negotiated both with the Abkhazians and the South Ossetians but the problems for Georgia are by no means solved. Just two weeks ago, the stability of Georgia was again threatened by an assassination attempt upon Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze. The full repercussions of this event remain to be seen.

By far the most visible of the Caucuses conflicts is the ongoing dispute between the upstart Republic of Chechnya and the Russian Federation. From 1994-96, the small Chechen forces successfully resisted the Russian army. However half of the 1.2 million people in Chechnya either fled or were killed. After a cease-fire in late 1996, the Russians withdrew. However the peace treaty signed last year left the status of Chechnya uncertain. Chechnya maintains its independence while Russia insists that it is still part of the Federation. A lasting resolution is yet to be found.

Another issue currently prevalent in the CIS is the security of United Nations and other aid workers. Even as this introduction is being written, there are three U.N. military observers being held hostage in Georgia. Due to security threats, 70 percent of U.N. personnel have been relocated and many non governmental organizations (NGOs) have pulled out all together. The CIS remains one of the most dangerous places for relief agencies to work.

When considering these conflicts in the Caucuses, the importance of the oil in the region should not be underestimated. Over 200 billion barrels of oil reserves are believed to exist beneath the Caspian Sea. This amount, by itself, could fuel the world for 30-40 years. Already there has been some $7.5 million invested in extracting the oil, and international competition is stiff. "Early Oil", in other words a limited flow, started being pumped three months ago, but who will benefit remains to be seen. The question is, where will the pipeline go? More importantly, through which countries will the pipeline go? Will Armenia suffer at the hands of an oil-rich Azerbaijan? Will Russia allow Chechnya to keep the benefits of a pipeline through its country for itself? Will jobs created by an oil boom spark massive labor migration?

The complexity of the situation within the CIS cannot be summarized. For instance, the environmental refugees of the Ukraine and Kazakhstan were not yet even mentioned here. The only sure thing is that real solutions will not be easy, and real progress is going to take time.